Srinagar, Jan 26 : A fresh Western Disturbance is set to affect Jammu and Kashmir from Monday evening, with weather conditions likely to vary sharply between the plains, higher reaches, and parts of south Kashmir.
Officials said the system is not strong, but is sufficiently active to trigger moderate to locally heavy snowfall at higher elevations. In the plains, snowfall is possible as precipitation is expected to begin during night hours, though widespread or sustained accumulation remains uncertain.
The key factor determining snowfall accumulation in the plains will be night-time temperatures. Officials said if temperatures hover around 3 to 4 degrees Celsius, snow is unlikely to settle or may remain short lived. At present, the probability of snowfall in plains is estimated at around 50 percent, while chances of meaningful accumulation remain limited at about 30 to 40 percent.
North and central Kashmir plains are expected to have lower chances of dry snow, estimated at around 30 to 40 percent. However, south Kashmir districts, particularly Shopian and Kulgam, especially areas closer to the Pir Panjal range, are likely to fare better, with dry snow probability assessed at around 60 to 70 percent, increasing the likelihood of moderate accumulation.
Snowfall is also likely in the Chenab Valley, Poonch district, and along the Qazigund to Banihal stretch, while most remaining areas are expected to receive rainfall during the weather spell.
Officials said a few areas may experience brief gusty winds, but strong or prolonged wind conditions are not expected with this system. [KNT]
