Jahangir Sofi
Srinagar, Jan 29 : Chief Scientist of Sheri Kashmir University of Agriculture and Science Kashmir (SKUAST-K) Dr Rehana Rasool on Wednesday said the predicted wet spell from January 29 to February 5 is vital for the agricultural sector in the Valley.
Talking exclusively to the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), Dr Rasool said, “If the wet spell occurs, it will help lower temperatures and ensure water reserves for May and June. It’s a crucial factor in stabilizing the climate.”
“The previous snowfall (in last week of December 2024), following months of drought, did not retain much moisture, making the current precipitation vital for the agricultural sector,” she said, adding, “The unusually warm temperatures recorded in Kashmir during the past few days in the crucial winter phase can lead to an early bloom, which may negatively impact the crop yield.”
She said that a premature bloom could be detrimental. “If the early bloom continues and is followed by Western Disturbances in March, the drop in temperatures and excessive rainfall can cause petal shedding and hinder pollination, leading to reduced yields,” she added.
“Apple trees require adequate chilling hours, and if the temperatures remain high, their chilling requirement may not be met. This could result in poor blooming and lower production,” Dr Rasool said.
Pertinently, rising temperatures in Kashmir have led to stakeholders anticipating an early bloom of apples, almond, cherry, peach, and plum trees.
At present, no advisory has been issued by agricultural authorities, as farm operations are currently limited. However, farmers have been told to closely monitor temperature patterns and avoid pruning in freezing conditions.
*POSSIBLE ECONOMIC FALLOUT*
People associated with the apple industry are worried about the financial impact of these climatic changes. “Apple is the backbone of Kashmir’s economy. If production is affected, it will severely impact the livelihood of thousands of orchardists,” Bashir Ahmad Bashir, president of the apex trade body in J&K told KNO.
According to Bashir, the issue has been further aggravated by the absence of a functional crop insurance scheme. He stated that while the government has acknowledged the need for such an initiative, “but no concrete steps have been taken for its implementation,” he added.
“We had requested crop insurance, but it is yet to be rolled out effectively. Without it, orchardists are left vulnerable to losses due to climate variability,” he said.
*2024 DRIEST YEAR IN FIVE DECADES*
Notably, for the past five consecutive years, Jammu and Kashmir has received deficit rainfall, with 2024 being the driest year in the past 50 years.
Faizan Arif Keng, an independent weatherman who forecast weather in J&K, had told KNO that the year 2024 saw the lowest rainfall in five decades and touched close to the previous low of 802.5 mm recorded in 1974, marking the driest year in the past 50 years.
The monthly data for 2024 states that January recorded a staggering 91% shortfall, while February and March saw deficits of 17% and 16%, respectively.
*WEATHER AHEAD*
The weatherman on Monday said that the series of Western Disturbances (WDs) would affect Jammu and Kashmir from January 29 onwards and light snowfall is expected at isolated places or scattered places till February 5.
Director of the Meteorological department (MeT), Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad said, “Fresh spell of light rain and snow is expected at scattered places during the 29th night and 30th morning & at isolated places during the 31st January.”
“The weather would remain generally cloudy on February 01 and 02 with the possibility of light rain and snow at widespread places during the period. Also, on February 4 and 5, there is a possibility of light rain and snow at scattered places,” he said—(KNO)
